The Black Swan

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great\'s lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they\'re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the \'experts\', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.